Better Timing of Cyber Conflict∗

In this paper, we construct a model of cyber-weapon deployment and attempt to determine an optimal deployment time for cyberweapons using this model. We compare and contrast our approach to that in Axelrod and Iliev (R. Axelrod and R. Iliev. Timing of cyber conflict. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, (1322638111), 2013.), showing that our model accurately captures four real-world scenarios and has fewer quantities that are difficult to measure than the aforementioned approach. Under simplifying assumptions, we prove rules of thumb for determining when and wether a cyber-weapon should be deployed.